JOHNSON-GROH, CINDY, L*, DONALD, R. FARRAR, AND PHILIP MILLER. Biology Department, Gustavus Adolphus College, St. Peter, MN 56082; Botany Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011; Conservation Breeding Specialist Group, Apple Valley, MN 55124. - Modeling extinction probabilities for moonwort (Botrychium) populations.
Several Botrychium species are classified as endangered or
threatened. Rare species like B. gallicomontanum and B.
pseudopinnatum, have only a few known populations. Conservation
management of these rare Botrychium requires knowledge of their
life history and population demographics. Using what we know about
the species biology we can model population responses to natural and
man-made perturbations. Understanding Botrychium population
dynamics, (the distribution and actual population size) is complicated
by their small size. It is further compounded by the fact that plants
do not produce above-ground leaves on an annual basis and may be
dormant for several years. High variability in numbers of
above-ground plants suggests a high probability of local extinction.
Using demographic data collected on Botrychium mormo we have
identified the critical life history stages and used a stage-based
model to assess the population viability. Stages identified for
Botrychium include above-ground stages and several underground
stages including spores, gametophytes, juvenile sporophytes and
non-emergent sporophytes. Stochastic fluctuations and catastrophic
disturbances were examined. The model resulting from this analysis
predicts greater stability of populations than might be concluded from
monitoring above-ground plants. We believe this is a consequence of
having a large proportion of the population existing in underground
stages. Even catastrophic elimination of all the underground
gametophyte and sporophyte stages does not inevitably lead to
population extinction because of the importance of the spore bank.
Despite highly variable above-ground population fluctations,
below-ground stages provide Botrychium populations with a high
degree of buffering against local extinction.
Key words: Botrychium, conservation biology, population viability analysis, stage-based modeling