Thomas Jones

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Thomas Jones

Research
Scientist

tajones@ou.edu@ou.edu
Thomas.Jones@noaa.gov
National Weather Center 4360

Education

PhD, Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville
MS, Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
BS, Meteorology, University of Oklahoma

Affiliated CIWRO Team

Warn on Forecast System (WoFS)

About

From 2010 to the present, Thomas has been employed as a Research Scientist at CIMMS/CIWRO as part of the Warn-on-Forecast (WoFS) project. He received his PhD at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in May 2006. His primary duty involves developing and testing methods to assimilate satellite data, with an emphasis on GOES-R products, into storm-scale numerical weather prediction models such as the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS).

In 2020, a new project integrating HRRR-Smoke technology in collaboration with GSL was begun to allow for short-term probabilistic forecasts of smoke generated from wildfires, resulting in WoFS-Smoke. He is also leading a fire weather “tiger team” within NSSL to coordinate fire-related research across divisions, which includes planning for future field products, fire-weather model coupling, and increased observations of the active and post-fire conditions. In addition to research efforts, he has been involved in real-time support of the WoFS as part of the HWT. He was responsible for all satellite-DA aspects of the system, which includes realtime observation processing and monitoring until 2022 before being transitioned to a cloud-based system. He led the development of synthetic satellite, convection initiation, tropical cyclones and drought related parameters for WoFS and have received positive feedback from NWS forecasters on their usefulness in real-time applications.

He currently serves as the CIWRO representative to the NWC library committee and has also served as a member of the CIWRO travel, and best paper committees. He is currently an organizer for the CIWRO fire weather workshop occurring in February 2024. Finally, he has been involved with several University of Oklahoma related activities. He was appointed as Adjunct Associate Faculty in 2019, and he has advised two OU Honors and OU Capstone projects. He served on the Master’s committee for Joel McAuliffe who graduated in May 2020, and on the Ph.D. committee of Sijie Pan. He also performed guest lectures on satellite DA for the Advanced Data Assimilation Methods class (METR-6313) and served as instructor for the Convective Seminar Series class from Fall 2019 until Spring 2020. As part of the fire weather project, he will be co-advising a student starting in 2025.

Research Focus

Satellite data assimilation
Fire weather
Warn on Forecast System

CIWRO Research Themes

Mesoscale and Stormscale Modeling R&D

Publications

Jones, T. A., D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2013a: Evaluation of a forward operator to assimilate cloud water path into WRF-DART. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2272–2289.
Jones, T. A., J. Otkin, D. J. Stensrud, and K. Knopfmeier, 2013b: Assimilation of satellite infrared radiances and Doppler radar observations during a cool season Observing System Simulation Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev. 141, 3273–3299.
Jones, T. A., J. Otkin, D. J. Stensrud, and K. Knopfmeier, 2014: Forecast evalua-tion of an Observing System Simulation Experiment assimilating both radar and satellite data. Mon. Wea. Rev. 142, 107-124.
Jones, T. A., D. J. Stensrud, L. Wicker, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2015: Simul-taneous radar and satellite data storm-scale assimilation using an ensemble Kal-man filter approach for 24 May 2011. Mon. Wea. Rev. 143, 165–194.
Jones, T. A. and D. J. Stensrud, 2015: Assimilating cloud water path as a function of model cloud microphysics in an idealized simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 143, 2052–2081.
Jones, T. A., K. Knopfmeier, D. Wheatley, G. Creager, P. Minnis, and R.
Palikonda, 2016: Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast system. Part II: Combined radar and satellite data experiments. Wea. and Forecasting, 31, 297-327.
Jones, T. A., S. Koch, and Z. Li, 2016: Assimilating synthetic hyperspectral sound-er temperature and humidity retrievals to improve severe weather forecasts. At-mos. Research. 186, 9-25.
Jones, T. A., and C. Nixon, 2017: Short-term forecasts of left-moving supercell from an experimental Warn-on-Forecast system. J. Operational Meteor., 5, 151–160, doi:10.15191/nwajom.2017.0513.
Jones, T. A., X. Wang, P. Skinner, A. Johnson, and Y. Wang, 2018: Assimilation of GOES-13 imager clear-sky water vapor (6.5 um) radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 1077-1107.
Jones, T.A., P. Skinner, K. Knopfmeier, E. Mansell, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, and W.
Smith, 2018: Comparison of Cloud Microphysics Schemes in a Warn-on-Forecast System Using Synthetic Satellite Objects. Wea. and Forecasting, 33, 1681–1708.
Jones, T.A., P. Skinner, N. Yussouf, K. Knopfmeier, A. Reinhart, and. D. Dowell, 2019: Forecasting high-impact weather in landfalling tropical cyclones using a Warn-on-Forecast system. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc. 100, 1405-1417.
Jones, T. A., P. Skinner, N. Yussouf, K. Knopfmeier, A. Reinhart, X. Wang, K. Bedka, W. Smith Jr., R. Palikonda, 2020: Assimilation of GOES-16 Radiances and Retrievals into the Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev, 148, 1829–1859.
Jones, T.A., R. Ahmadov, E. James, G. Periria, S. Freitas, and G. Grell, 2022: Proto-type of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke). Wea. and Forecasting. 37, 1191-1209.
Jones, T.A., R. Ahmadov, and. E. James, 2022: Assimilation of aerosol optical depth into the Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke), J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres, 127, 24, 1–21.
Jones, T.A. and J. Mecikalski, 2023: Convection Initiation Forecasting Using Syn-thetic Satellite Imagery from the Warn-on-Forecast System, J. Oper Meteor., 11, 132-139.
Jones, T.A., R. Ahmadov, E. James, G. Periria, S. Freitas, and G. Grell, 2024: In-gesting GOES-16 Fire Radiative Power Retrievals into WoFS-Smoke, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33, 1-15.

Conference presentations

Jones, T.A., D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2014: Assimilating satel-lite retrievals and radar observations in a convection permitting model. 26th Con-ference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta GA.
Jones, T.A., and L.J. Wicker, 2014: Using radar reflectivity as a state variable in DART: Is it optimal? 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI.
Jones, T.A., K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, G. J. Creager, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2014: Assimilating radar and satellite data in an operational environ-ment for Warn-on-Forecast, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI.
Jones, T.A., L.J. Wicker, D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2014: Simul-taneous radar and satellite data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter ap-proach for 24 May 2011. The 2014 Warn-on-Forecast and High-Impact Weather Workshop, Norman, OK.
Jones, T.A., K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, G. J. Creager, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2015: Prototype of an ensemble radar and satellite data assimilation system for Warn-on-Forecast, 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 95th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ.
Jones, T.A., L.J. Wicker, 2015: Radar reflectivity and radial velocity forward oper-ator comparisons in EAKF data assimilation, 37th Conference on Radar Meteorolo-gy, Norman, OK.
Jones, T.A., K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, G. J. Creager, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2015: The NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
NEWS-e., 13th JCSDA Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation, College Park., MD
Jones, T.A., D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2016: Thinning Strategies for Combined Radar and Satellite Data Sets to Increase Storm-Scale Data Assimilation Efficiency, 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), 96th AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA.
Jones, T.A., J. A. Otkin, S. Koch, R. M. Cintineo, D. J. Stensrud, and Z. Li, 2016: Overview of Quick OSSEs in Support of the Warn-on-Forecast Project, 28th Confer-ence on Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR.
Jones, T.A., K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, and D. Dowell, 2016: Satellite Data Assimilation within a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast Sys-tem., International Symposium on Data Assimilation, Reading UK.
Jones, T.A., K. H. Knopfmeier, D. M. Wheatley, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, G. J. Cre-ager, and L. J. Wicker, 2016: Current and future satellite data assimilation into Warn-on Forecast., 2016 Satellite Proving Ground/User-Readiness Meeting, College Park, MD.
Jones, T.A., D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2017: Assessment of assimi-lating Cloud Water Path into the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensemble (NEWS-e) during the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed, 28th Confer-ence on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 97th AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
Jones, T.A., X. Wang and P. S. Skinner, 2018: Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 um) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System, Sixth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, 98th AMS An-nual Meeting, Austin, TX.
Jones, T.A., S. Mallick, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, P. S. Skinner, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, and W. L. Smith Jr., 2019: Status of Satellite Data Assimilation in the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, 99th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ.
Jones, T.A., P. S. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, A. E. Reinhart, and D. C. Dowell, 2019: Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast System. Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication. 99th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ.
Jones, T.A., S. Mallick, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, P. Minnis, R. Pali-konda, and W. L. Smith Jr., 2019: Current Status and Ongoing Challenges of Satel-lite Data Assimilation into the Warn-on-Forecast System., 2019 Joint Satellite Con-ference, Boston, MA.
Jones, T.A., X. Wang, N. Yussouf, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, D. C. Dowell, W. L. Smith Jr., P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2020: Assimilation of All-Sky Water Vapor Channel GOES-16 Radiances into the Warn-on-Forecast System. Eighth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), 100th AMS Annual Meeting, Boston, MA.
Jones, T.A., R. Ahmadov, and E. Jones, 2021: Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for smoke forecasting (WoFS-Smoke)., American Geophysical Union, Fall Monitoring, Modeling, and Forecasting Fire Emissions, Smoke, and Their Health Impacts II, Meeting 2021: New Orleans, LA
Jones, T.A. and J. Mecikalski, 2023: Forecasting Convective Initiation Using Syn-thetic Satellite Output from the Warn-on-Forecast System, 103rd Annual AMS con-ference, Denver CO.
Jones, T.A., R. Ahmadov, and E. James, 2023: Extension of WoFS-Smoke to ingest GOES-R Fire Radiative Power retrievals 32nd Weather and Forecasting Conference, Madison, WI.