Jacob Vancil

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Jacob Vancil

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Research
Associate II

jake.vancil@ou.edu
jacob.vancil@noaa.gov
National Weather Center 2100

Education

MS, Atmospheric Science, Texas Tech University
BS, Meteorology, Western Illinois University

Affiliated CIWRO Team

CIWRO SPC

About

Jacob's main area of research is for the annual Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE). This involves work with critical R2O project and accessing the latest convection allowing models (CAM) for severe hazards. When not preparing for the SFE, Jacob's research involves improving severe hazard forecasts, CAM and CAM ensemble verification, and other verification work using MET/METplus. Additional research includes development of potential forecasting tools for SPC operations.

Research Focus

Hazardous Weather Testbed, Spring Forecasting Experiment
Severe hazard forecasts
MET/METplus
Severe hazard verification
Convection allowing model (CAM) and CAM ensemble verification
Conditional intensity forecasts
R2O development and implementation

CIWRO Research Themes

Weather Radar and Observations
Forecast Applications Improvements R&D

Publications

Vancil, J.T., and I.L. Jirak, 2023: Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System during the 2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Proc., 32nd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction/20th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Madison, WI, 10.2.
Vancil, J.T., I.L. Jirak, and C.D. Karstens, 2022: Conditional Intensity Forecast Verification Using Significant Severe Local Storm Reports. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P214.
Wade, A.R., I.L. Jirak, V.A. Gensini, and J. Vancil, 2022: Using Practically Perfect Intensity Hindcasts to Identify the Environments of Significant Severe Weather Outbreaks. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P180.
Jirak, I.L., D.R. Harrison, and J. Vancil, 2022: HREF Climatology of Storm-Attribute Fields. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 8.4B.

Conference presentations

Vancil, J.T., and I.L. Jirak, 2023: Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System during the 2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Proc., 32nd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction/20th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Madison, WI, 10.2.
Vancil, J.T., I.L. Jirak, and C.D. Karstens, 2022: Conditional Intensity Forecast Verification Using Significant Severe Local Storm Reports. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P214.

Jacob Vancil

Jacob Vancil

Research Associate II

Research
Associate II