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Michael Baldwin

Michael Baldwin

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Research
Scientist

mbaldwin@ou.edu
michael.baldwin@noaa.gov
National Weather Center 2330

Education

  • PhD, Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
  • MS, Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
  • BSE, Atmospheric Science, University of Michigan

Affiliated CIWRO Team

  • Storm Prediction Center

About

Improving operational weather prediction and decision-support tools has been Dr. Baldwin's primary goal and research interest throughout his more than thirty years of experience, first as a support/research scientist within NCEP/EMC and OU/CIMMS, next as a professor at Purdue University, and most recently at OU/CIWRO. During the early part of his career, Dr. Baldwin was responsible for developing post-processing tools, physics parameterizations, and verification packages for several operational numerical weather prediction systems as a contractor (GSC/SAIC) at NCEP/EMC. During his time at OU/CIMMS, Baldwin developed and executed several real-time experimental NWP systems on linux clusters, making those products available to operational forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center. While at Purdue University, Prof. Baldwin and his graduate students teamed up to work on a diverse set of topics relevant to operational weather prediction and decision-support, ranging from storm-scale data assimilation, post-processing, AI/machine learning, seasonal-to-subseasonal prediction, road weather, climate change, and forecast verification. Since returning to OU/CIWRO in 2022, Dr. Baldwin has been focusing on methods of verification, evaluation, and error diagnosis of operational SPC products as well as a variety of operational and experimental prediction systems. 

Research Focus

  • Severe weather analysis and prediction
  • Forecast verification
  • Numerical weather prediction
  • Data-driven atmospheric science
  • Climate change
  • Scientific computing

CIWRO Research Themes

  • Mesoscale and Stormscale Modeling R&D
  • Forecast Applications Improvements R&D
  • Social and Socioeconomic Impacts of High Impact Weather
Honors and awards
  • 2003 American Meteorological Society Editor’s Award for the journal Weather and Forecasting for “thoughtful, helpful, and detailed reviews that consistently assisted in improving submitted manuscripts.”
Publications
  • Brooks, H. E., M. L. Flora, and M. E. Baldwin, 2024: A Rose by Any Other Name: On Basic Scores from the 2 × 2 Table and the Plethora of Names Attached to Them. Artif. Intell. Earth Syst., 3, e230104, https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-23-0104.1. 
  • Reeves, H. D., D. D. Tripp, M. E. Baldwin, and A. A. Rosenow, 2023: Statistical Evaluation of Different Surface Precipitation-Type Algorithms and Its Implications for NWP Prediction and Operational Decision-Making. Wea. Forecasting, 38, 2575–2589, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0081.1. 
  • Baldwin, M. E., H. D. Reeves, and A. A. Rosenow, 2023: Evaluation of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast System Based on Machine Learning. Wea. Forecasting, 38, 2427–2440, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0137.1. 
  • Chavas, D., J. Liang, M. Baldwin, M. Zhou, L. Rustad, C. McCray, S. DiVito, and E. Mullens, 2023: Summary of an interdisciplinary workshop on risk-relevant gaps and needs in freezing rain science, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104, E1265–E1267, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0075.1.
  • Salmon, O.E., Welp, L.R., Baldwin, M.E., Hajny, K.D., Stirm, B.H. and Shepson, P.B., 2019. Vertical profile observations of water vapor deuterium excess in the lower troposphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19(17), 11525-11543.
  • Hamlet, A. H., K. Byun, S. Robeson, M. Widhalm, M. Baldwin, 2019: Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Indiana: Ensemble Future Projections Based on Statistical Downscaling. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2309-9
  • Dawson, L.C., G.S. Romine, R.J. Trapp, and M.E. Baldwin, 2017: Verifying Supercellular Rotation in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting System with Radar-Derived Rotation Track Data. Wea. Forecasting, 32, 781–795, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0121.1 
  • Hoogewind, K.A., M.E. Baldwin, and R.J. Trapp, 2017: The Impact of Climate Change on Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States: Insight from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling. J. Climate, 30, 10081–10100, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0885.1
  • Trapp, R. J., D.J. Stensrud, M. C. Coniglio, R. S. Schumacher, M. E. Baldwin, S. Waugh, and D. T. Conlee, 2016: Mobile radiosonde deployments during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Rapid and adaptive sampling of upscale convective feedbacks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 329-336. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00258.1
  • Weisman, M.L., R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, C. Davis, R. Torn, M. Baldwin, L. Bosart, J. Brown, M. Coniglio, D. Dowell, A. C. Evans, T. J. Galarneau Jr., J. Haggerty, T. Hock, K. Manning, P. Roebber, P. Romashkin, R. Schumacher, C. S. Schwartz, R. Sobash, D. Stensrud, and S. B. Trier, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 2127–2149. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00281.1
  • Robinson, E. D., R. J. Trapp, M. E. Baldwin, 2013: The Geospatial and Temporal Distributions of Severe Thunderstorms from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 2147–2161.
  • Hitchens, N. M., M.E. Baldwin, and R. J. Trapp, 2012: An object-oriented characterization of extreme precipitation-producing convective systems in the Midwestern United States.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1356-1366.
  • Schwedler, B.R.J. and M. E. Baldwin, 2011: Diagnosing the sensitivity of binary image measures to bias, location, and event frequency within a forecast verification framework. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 1032-1044.  
  • Carley, J., B.R.J. Schwedler, M. E. Baldwin, J. Trapp, J. Kwiatkowski, J. Logsdon, and S. J. Weiss, 2011: A proposed model-based methodology for feature-specific prediction for high-impact weather. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 243-249.
  • Trapp, R. J., E. D. Robinson, M.E. Baldwin, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and B. R. J. Schwedler, 2010: Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-010-0826-y.
  • Hitchens, N.M., R.J. Trapp, M.E. Baldwin, and A. Gluhovsky, 2010: Characterizing Subdiurnal Extreme Precipitation in the Midwestern United States. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 211–218. 
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP.  Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931-952.
  • Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin, E. D. Robinson, and J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19,719-19,723.
  • Gallus, W. A., M. E. Baldwin, and K. L. Elmore, 2007: Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecasts determined from Eta and AVN forecasted amounts. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 207-215.
  • Song, Y., J. Ye, N. Svakhine, S. Lasher-Trapp, M. Baldwin, and D. S. Ebert, 2006: An atmospheric visual analysis and exploration system. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 12 (5), 1157-1164.
  • Elmore, K.L., D.M. Schultz, and M.E. Baldwin, 2006: The Behavior of Synoptic-Scale Errors in the Eta Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3355–3366.
  • Lakshmivarahan, S., M. E. Baldwin, and T. Zheng, 2006: Further analysis of Lorenz’s maximum simplification equations. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2673-2699.
  • Baldwin, M. E. and J. S. Kain, 2006: Sensitivity of several performance measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency.  Wea. Forecasting, 21, 636-648.
  • Bukovsky, M. S., J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real?  Wea. Forecasting, 21, 307-324.
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF Model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167-181.
  • Stensrud, D. J., N. Yussouf, M. E. Baldwin, J. T. McQueen, J. Du, B. Zhou, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, M. F.  Ralph, J. M. Wilczak, A. B. White, I. Djlalova, J. W. Bao, R. J. Zamora, S. G. Benjamin, P. A. Miller,  T. L. Smith, T. Smirnova, and M. F. Barth, 2006: The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 491-498.
  • Elmore, K. L., D. M Schultz, and M. E. Baldwin, 2006: Field significance revisited: Spatial bias errors in forecasts as applied to the Eta Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 519-531.
  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and S. Lakshmivarahan, 2005: Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 844-862.
  • Wandishin, M. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. L. Mullen, and J. V. Cortinas, 2005: Short-Range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 609-626.
  • Kurkowski, N. P., D. J. Stensrud, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: Assessment of implementing satellite-derived land cover data in the Eta model. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 404-416.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. P. Kay, and G. W. Carbin, 2003: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 847-860.
  • Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and H. E. Brooks, 2003: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1797-1806.
  • Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, 2003: Parameterized updraft mass flux as a predictor of convective intensity. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 106-116.
  • Ebert, E. E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 481-492.
  • Hane, C. E., R. M. Rabin, T. M. Crawford, H. B. Bluestein, and M. E. Baldwin, 2002: A case study of severe storm development along a dryline within a synoptically active environment. Part II: Multiple boundaries and convective initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 900-920.
  • Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP's Eta model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1063-1079.
  • Hane, C. E., M. E. Baldwin, H. B. Bluestein, T. M. Crawford, and R. M. Rabin, 2001: A case study of severe storm development along a dryline within a synoptically active environment. Part I: Dryline motion and an Eta model forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2183-2204.
  • Zapotocny, T. H., S. J. Nieman, W. P. Menzel, J. P. I. Nelson, J. A. Jung, E. Rogers, D. F. Parrish, G. J. DiMego, M. Baldwin, and T. J. Schmit, 2000: A case study of the sensitivity of the Eta data assimilation system. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 603-621.
  • Kain, J. S., S. M. Goss, and M. E. Baldwin, 2000: The melting effect as a factor in precipitation-type forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 700-714.
  • Zhao, Q., T. L. Black, and M. E. Baldwin, 1997: Implementation of the cloud prediction scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 697-712.
  • Hane, C. E., H. B. Bluestein, T. M. Crawford, M. E. Baldwin, and R. M. Rabin, 1997: Severe thunderstorm development in relation to along-dryline variability: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 231-251.
  • Mesinger, F., T. L. Black, and M. E. Baldwin, 1997:  Impact of resolution and of the eta coordinate on skill of the Eta Model precipitation forecasts.  Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, The André J. Robert Memorial Volume, C. Lin, R. Laprise, and H.  Ritchie, Eds., Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society/NRC Research Press, Ottawa, 399-423.
  • Rogers, E., T. L. Black, D. G. Deaven, G. J. DiMego, Q. Zhao, M. Baldwin, N. W. Junker, and Y. Lin, 1996: Changes to the operational ""early"" Eta analysis/forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 391-413.
Conference presentations
  • Baldwin, M.E., H.E. Brooks, M.L. Flora, 2024: Performance Diagrams Based on Skill Scores, 28th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, 104th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 15.5, https://ams.confex.com/ams/104ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/437988
  • Baldwin, M.E., 2023: Application of Multi-Dimensional Stratification in Forecast Verification, 28th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, 11.1,
  • https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWPMS/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/424923
  • Baldwin, M.E., H.D. Reeves, and A.A. Rosenow, 2023: Evaluation of Probabilistic Guidance for Sub-freezing Road Surfaces, Special Symposium on Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs), 103rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 9.5, https://ams.confex.com/ams/103ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/418429
  • Jensen, Tara L., Geoffrey S Manikin, Jason A Otkin, Jason J Levit, Michael E Baldwin, David D Turner, Matthew Janiga, 2022: A Community Effort to Unify Verification and Validation Efforts: A Report on the DTC UFS Community Metrics Workshop, 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting https://ams.confex.com/ams/102ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/398528
  • Baldwin, M. E., K. A. Hoogewind, H. E. Brooks, V. A. Gensini, and P. S. Skinner, 2021: Tornado Forecasts of 1884: Revisiting Finley’s Forecasts with Modern Tools. 19th History Symposium, 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 11.7. https://ams.confex.com/ams/101ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/384112
  • Baldwin, M. E., 2020: Accelerating the Evaluation of Experimental NWP Forecasts via Crowdsourcing, 100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/368871
Professional organizations
  • American Meteorological Society
Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO)
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Suite 2100
Norman, OK 73072
Updated 10/30/2025 by Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO): ciwro@ou.edu